I am doing a forecasting for corona virus cases in NY, I have two models and not sure which one i should choose

I am using exponential smoothing and using tableau for forecasting. The first model I included trend and removed seasonality and it predicted the number of cases going up but the quality I got according to tables was "Ok" (Tableau has 3 ranges to describe the quality of a model -Poor, OK and Good). The second model I removed trend and added seasonality to it, This showed the number of cases going down and the quality of the model was good according to tableau. Which model should I be using here, My professor says it's flattening the curve that's why it's going down in the second model while my teammates argue the first model should be the correct one.